Tag Archives: Prediction

Chapter XVIII: Rationality in Human Behavior

Assuming rationality is the foundation of human behaviour, we can model theories to generate future predictions. However, world reality confronts us to neglect sometimes this assumption. The individual will always make the best possible choice, as if it were a computer generated processor. What postulate can we infer from this fundamental theorem? Might we assume that this hypothetical, yet optimal idea is unattainable?This is a philosophical debate question: are all human rational behaviour based on rational axioms? Therefore, any irrational act is unintentional, or is it the opposite? Let us examine the effects of Rationality on a typical contemporary society.

First of all, what kind of inaccuracies people create?  Everyday life decisions, of course. Some are time-based, such as procrastination, lateness, staying up after nighttime, etc. Some are emotion-based: on purpose, such as anger, jealousy. (For a fact: thought can regulate emotions). Others, at lower intensity levels, are caused by an external stimuli, such as sadness, sorrow. Excitement, similarly, is also an interesting point to scrutinize.

Knowing those inaccuracies will benefit largely the following steps.

But Time is closely related to Rational thinking, cognitive process and emotional judgement. Why does an individual tries to fight instead of finding a mutual solution when facing someone he deems pugnacious? Subjective, impulsive act of hastiness. Theoretically, if this individual had 0.74352 seconds more, he could have made a better solution. Thus decreasing marginal fury will cause him to be more and more placid over time. We can therefore conclude that the consequences of opting an incorrect selection is much greater than the Willingness to reconsider an impetuous decision without any careful reflections.

This is the End of the Chapter.

Addtional Details:

Fact: If the time was an Enemy to conquer, we would hardly win the battle. Even with 7 487 673 094 people, Time would be the victor. Why? Because Time can run faster than anyone else in the Universe. Time has existed since the Universe was born, so even before that. The Earth’s fate depends on mankind. In mathematics, any variable in the Y axis given a possible function can reach upon Both sides of Infinity. Time can go beyond centuries and millennia, but it can never surpass the great doom of Infinity, for it shall be the Object of Reference for the sake of human’s understanding.

Also, the relativeness of time is crucial in our understanding of the principles of Logic. Staying seventy days in an lonely, isolated place might be equal to one year of schooling.  The great Einstein invented the formula of Relativity; for Time shall not depend on a same pack of individuals.

Human cannot predict time [to be correct, Time is a concept created by abstract humans to model reality], but can predict Nature’s Fate and their own. Trying to forecast financial activity of the stock market is one example that proves why it is with so much difficulty that humans cannot anticipate their own behavior with exactitude.

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Chapter XVII: Examining Time

 

Assuming from we know from Economics, if time was a good, it would be a normal good. Based on their observed behavior, we can deduce the following empirical conclusion: people use wage obtained from hours of work to buy leisure time, which has many possible uses. It is impossible to save it, but possible to “invest it”. The probability that they would spend their leisure time, T­L,  ­on activities payback return (in other words, gratifying accomplishments) like reading, studying or writing. Another optimal choice is activities that generates periodic earnings, but to a certain extent, in which an excessive level of income is undesirable.

From a philosophical, metaphysical or even poetical way, time is reflected in youth’s splendour. From there we can conclude the following thesis: an event in life time occurs only once, if not brought on intentionally; for an event or incident (negative connotation) cannot happen twice, with the exact same circumstances. It is rather obvious that time moves progressively; to move regressively requires an artificially method. This particular method is actually burgeoning, with a highly revolutionary technology, virtual reality.  A consequence of time going backward would, if this statement taken word by word, “make every human being on earth experience their memories once more”. Would that increase marginal utility?  If people can live their most unforgettable life stories once more, by observing they past blunders, we can deduct they will pay attention to their future actions. But that is not yet possible. Time has still yet come…

Speaking of time…

Time is not visible even to the greatest optical instrument; however space is visible. By space we mean the environment, our immediate surroundings. If time is not visible, we want to measure the change in the environment. In Antiquity thinkers understood the concept when they see a very obvious change in weather, observed in seasons. From there, the Time system was created. A full year represents on unit, divided into sub-units. We can therefore deduct that every second correspond to a specific marginal change in the universe. So space depends on time. Space is the aggregation of everything on Earth. How can we divide space? With which possible techniques? Based on countries? Assuming that countries are not equally spread out in terms of land area, there is not a coherent structure for methodic analysis, therefore there is no place for constant linearity. Is surveying a good idea? What kind of sampling distribution it will generate? Instead, we may choose to simply form our research on existing literature and database. To do so the population density per kilometre squared is a good indicator. Unfortunately, this is an enormous range to work with. We might simply use metre-squared for reasonable purposes. And after evaluating this parameter, it seems legitimate that any individuals, with x standard deviations of the normal curve, using height as an indicator would fit well into these descriptive statistics for our results. Also, the Metric System is the optimal tool for this empirical framework. It is important to remind that we are working with a two dimensional space set.

Deriving for above, there is an important aspect to take into account, the Individual perspective, which divide, from eyesight, the environment. Two same individuals can never see the world from the exact same angle. And assuming we use sight to represent the totality of the five senses. Based on these assertions, we can confirm that this is the root of Subjectivity, for two individuals can never agree on everything.  This part is extremely complicated, follow carefully. We know that past experiences accumulates with time, which is equivalent into the number of memories. This variable can be translated into the number of changes in their environment with respect to one’s vision. Let technology be possible. We can fast-forward one’s lifelong journey into a fixed quantity of time, T, and set that to be the model with respect to the average life expectancy. By examining common events in individual’s lives, we can infer additional premises.

In mathematical terms, P(X)≠P(Y), where P stands for perspective, also point of view.

For next chapters/coming:                                                                                                                       Scientific analysis of the cause-effect relationship of music and memories

 

 

Goals

Pre-work Considerations

  1. Goals
  2. a) Predict individual behaviour by using cognitive analysis.
  3. b) Understanding key factors in human relations
  4. c) Create a universal, numerical-scale based measuring system
  5. d) Improve analysis methods by focusing on structure and patterns
  6. e) Create a systematic solution to categorize abstract concepts
  7. f) Understanding the decision-making process (optimal choice selection)
  8. g) Create a method of quantifying emotion by measuring it

 

  1. Methods
  2. a) From a sample, generate theories that applies to a whole population.
  3. b) Using economic concepts to
  4. c) Simplify to clarify
  5. d) Detailed Explanation of Concepts
  6. e) Content Analysis of Games

 

Core concept: Equilibrium

List of Ideas

Strategy, Resource allocation, Opportunity cost, Decision making, Time/Timing (perfect moment/opportunity), Space/Distance, Estimation, Prediction, Aesthetic, Belief, Imagination, Energy (physical, mental)

Goal:

– To reduce the margin of error, alpha

– To reduce confusion (incomprehensiveness, misunderstanding of human behaviour through cognitive analysis.

– Of the fundamental application of our theorem is to enhance the positive effects of cognitive behavioural therapy